توضیح 1
Estimated time: 44 minutes.
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درس 9 از 11
Build a transparent bounded scenario from minimum, most-likely, and maximum values.
وضعیت ترجمه محتوای درس
ترجمه دانشگاهی فارسی در حال بازبینی انسانی است. متن آموزشی تأییدشده انگلیسی در ادامه نمایش داده میشود؛ رابط کاربری فارسی است و فرمولها، کد R، نمادگذاری و نام ستونها چپبهراست باقی میمانند.
Lesson 7.8
Build a transparent bounded scenario from minimum, most-likely, and maximum values. Business question: Estimate the mean.
توضیح 1
Estimated time: 44 minutes.
توضیح 2
Prior knowledge: complements, algebra, probability notation, and careful unit conversion.
توضیح 3
Calculate and simulate a triangular scenario from valid parameters.
توضیح 4
Explain when triangular assumptions are more transparent than uniform or normal assumptions.
توضیح 5
Interpret a optional: triangular distribution for what-if analysis result in business context with consistent units.
توضیح 6
Use and explain the relevant base R distribution functions without confusing density, probability, quantiles, or simulation.
Core explanation
Minimum a: The lowest credible scenario value. Mode b: The single most-likely scenario value. Maximum c: The highest credible scenario value.
توضیح 1
A probability is an area over an event, not an unexplained curve height.
توضیح 2
State the random variable, support, units, and assumptions before using a formula.
توضیح 3
Connect every numerical answer to a practical decision and limitation.
اصطلاحات
The lowest credible scenario value.
Earliest completion.
The single most-likely scenario value.
Most likely duration.
The highest credible scenario value.
Latest completion.
نمادگذاری و فرمولها
mu=(a+b+c)/3; Var=(a^2+b^2+c^2-ab-ac-bc)/18
Symbols: a is the minimum, b is the mode, and c is the maximum with a<=b<=c. All three parameters and the mean use the scenario variable's units. Use: apply this relationship only after defining the model and event. Plain-text equivalent: mu=(a+b+c)/3; Var=(a^2+b^2+c^2-ab-ac-bc)/18.
مثال حلشده
سناریو
Experts give 20, 45, and 90 days.
بررسی با R
The custom rtri() function generates scenario values; simulation proportions estimate probabilities and must be checked for Monte Carlo error.The triangular mean is 51.67 days.
تمرین هدایتشده
سناریو
Low, likely, high demand are 1,000, 1,600, 2,800.
بررسی با R
The custom rtri() function generates scenario values; simulation proportions estimate probabilities and must be checked for Monte Carlo error.The long upper range creates right skew.
فعالیت تعاملی
احتمال بازه
0.3983
تفسیر: پارامترهای (۲۰، ۴۵، ۹۰) قضاوتهای سناریوییاند؛ اثر تغییر آنها بر تصمیم را بررسی کنید.
تمرین مستقل
سناریو
Only bounds 20 and 90 are defensible.
بررسی با R
The custom rtri() function generates scenario values; simulation proportions estimate probabilities and must be checked for Monte Carlo error.No; use a transparent range model or collect evidence.
تمرین مستقل
سناریو
Stakeholders revise the high duration from 90 to 120.
بررسی با R
The custom rtri() function generates scenario values; simulation proportions estimate probabilities and must be checked for Monte Carlo error.The mean and upper-tail risk rise; document the elicitation change.
ارتباط با R
The custom rtri() function generates scenario values; simulation proportions estimate probabilities and must be checked for Monte Carlo error. Run the original starter code, inspect every printed intermediate value, then modify one assumption and explain the decision impact. Keep code, formulas, function names, column names, and numerical output left-to-right.
Live R Lab
Use bounded minimum, most-likely, and maximum values for transparent scenarios.
Ready to run
Common mistakes and model safeguard
Triangular inputs are scenario judgments unless supported by data; sensitivity analysis is required. Also check tail direction, parameter units, support, and whether software returned density, cumulative probability, a quantile, or generated data.
Originality and provenance
Original synthetic data generated for STATLAB Academy. No textbook data used.
بازاندیشی
Name the assumption, the evidence you would seek, and how the recommendation could change.
Lesson summary
Build a transparent bounded scenario from minimum, most-likely, and maximum values. The reliable workflow is: define X and units, justify the model, state the event, calculate, verify, interpret, and disclose limitations.
توضیح 1
Minimum a: The lowest credible scenario value.
توضیح 2
Mode b: The single most-likely scenario value.
توضیح 3
Maximum c: The highest credible scenario value.
دستیار
Coach me through Optional: Triangular Distribution for What-if Analysis one decision at a time. Before submission, give hints only and do not reveal quiz answers or complete my recommendation.
منبع
Download an original, accessible STATLAB Academy reference and practice sheet.
دریافتارزیابی پایانی