توضیح 1
First-stage branch: An initial mutually exclusive outcome.
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درس 12 از 16
Organize conditional branches, terminal outcomes, and total probabilities in sequential processes.
Theory
Organize conditional branches, terminal outcomes, and total probabilities in sequential processes.
توضیح 1
First-stage branch: An initial mutually exclusive outcome.
توضیح 2
Conditional branch: A second outcome probability given its path.
توضیح 3
Terminal probability: The product along a complete path.
اصطلاحات
An initial mutually exclusive outcome.
Demand moves up, stable, or down.
A second outcome probability given its path.
Correct signal given demand is up.
The product along a complete path.
Up and correct signal.
نمادگذاری و فرمولها
P(path) = product of conditional branch probabilities
Define every event before substituting values, then validate the result and denominator.
فعالیت تعاملی
| Terminal path | Joint probability |
|---|---|
| A then B | 0.351 |
| A then not B | 0.099 |
| not A then B | 0.198 |
| not A then not B | 0.352 |
| Total | 1 |
مثال حلشده
سناریو
A forecast signal has different accuracy for rising, stable, and falling demand.
Reversing a tree changes the conditional probabilities needed.
ارتباط با R
Run and edit the code, inspect intermediate output, and use the movable R Code Guide while practising.
Live R Lab
Build a branch table, calculate terminal probabilities, and verify that they sum to one.
Ready to run
Dataset provenance
Original synthetic data generated for STATLAB Academy. No textbook data used.
Interpretation safeguard
Branch probabilities must be conditional on the path that reaches that branch.
بازاندیشی
Name the event, denominator, probability interpretation, and one operational limitation.
دستیار
Help me reason through Tree Diagrams and Sequential Events by asking questions about my event definitions, denominator, formula choice, assumptions, and interpretation. Do not give a quiz answer before I submit.
ارزیابی پایانی
منبع
Explore additional probability explanations and exercises from properly licensed or publisher resources.
دریافتمنبع
Download an original worksheet or guide for this lesson.
دریافت